Statistics

Innovator of Quality Starts, cap-measurement tool GVS (Goals Versus Salary), OZQoC charts to graphically represent player roles, the Snepsts System of finding similar historical players and making projections, and advances in the field of league translations and equivalencies (e.g. AHL, KHL), Robert Vollman happily makes all his data available for public use.

Home Plate Save Percentage

posted Aug 20, 2014, 4:46 AM by Robert Vollman

Introduced in the 2014 edition of Hockey Abstract, home plate save percentage is each goalie's save percentage on shots taken exclusively inside the home plate area. The home plate area extends from the goal posts to the faceoff dots, then directly up to the top of the faceoff circle, and then joined together. It forms a shape not unlike baseball's home plate. Typically these shots are far more dangerous than those taken outside.

The attached data shows every goalie's save percentage inside and outside the home plate area for the 2011-12, 2012-13, and 2013-14 seasons combined, using data sourced from Greg Sinclair's Super Shot Search. Remember that shot distance is not recorded consistently from one city to another, resulting in a great portion of shots recorded as having been taken inside the home plate area for some teams than for others.

Note: in Hockey Abstract 2014, the save percentage data for shots taken outside the home plate area was accidentally swapped in the cases of Nikolai Khabibulin with Mike Smith, Victor Fasth with Antti Niemi, and Josh Harding with Ilya Bryzgalov.

Delta

posted Aug 6, 2014, 12:21 PM by Robert Vollman

Courtesy of Tom Awad, creator of GVT, here are the 2013-14 individual totals for the Delta statistic, in spreadsheet and CSV format.

What is Delta, and when is it useful in place of the more familiar Corsi (attempted shots) or Fenwick (unblocked attempted shots) statistics? 

Expressed in its simplest form, Delta is simply Fenwick adjusted for Shot Quality, leading to an “Expected Goal” value. Tom first introduced Delta way back in 2010, before the concept of Expected Goals had become more common (courtesy of Michael Parkatti). Delta is a way of expressing Fenwick numbers while keeping them in units of goals, which is the fundamental currency that hockey is expressed in. 

While Shot Quality is not a significant contributor to team success or failure in the NHL, it does exist, and it can be expressed at the individual level as well as the team level: certain players have a play style that leads to them having fewer, high-quality chances, while others prefer outside shots, leading to high shot differential. Both styles have their benefits and may be suited to different types of players, but Fenwick cannot differentiate between them.

Corsi and Fenwick also have other limitations, they are highly influenced by zone starts as well as the score of the game. When the score isn't tied in the third period, the trailing team will typically have a huge advantage in shots that doesn't translate into goals, they are taking lower-quality shots and allowing high-quality ones. As a result, “Fenwick Close”, defined as Fenwick when the score is tied or within 1 goal in the first two periods, has become the default Fenwick measure. This works well in that it avoids bias, but ends up throwing away almost 35% of the data in the NHL, which is unfortunate. Delta can naturally correct for that by weighing each shot by the game score, achieving the same thing as score-adjusted Fenwick. 

Like Fenwick and Corsi, Delta can also be adjusted for Quality of Competition and Quality of Teammates. However, Delta is also easier to compare to other measures. When a player has an Adjusted Delta of +5.0 over the entire season, you know that it means that he contributed +5 goals through his possession play. It's harder to perform that equivalency when we say a player has a Fenwick of +3.0 per 60 minutes. 

Lastly, comparing Delta with Fenwick acts as a proxy for Shot Quality. This can be useful when trying to understand why a player or team has the results that they do; for example, Phil  Kessel last season had a Corsi For of 1230 and an Corsi Against of 1557, giving him very bad possession numbers (a Corsi % of only 44.4%). However, when weighted by Shot Quality, we can see that he was on the ice for an equivalent of 59 Expected Goals For and 64 Expected Goals against, a more reasonable 48%. This goes part of the way in explaining why, despite the terrible Corsi numbers, his team still managed to outscore its opponents by 8 goals at 5-on-5 while he was on the ice.

NHL 2013-14 Player Data

posted Apr 21, 2014, 3:20 PM by Robert Vollman   [ updated Aug 20, 2014, 5:35 AM ]

Around 350 stats on all 886 players who were in even a single game in the 2013-14season.

An annual tradition for a decade, this spreadsheet contains a complete collection of statistics, both basic and advanced, from a wide variety of analysts and web sites including Hockey Reference, Gabriel Desjardins' Behind the Net, Darryl Metcalf and Extar Skater, Tom Awad and Hockey Prospectus, Cap Geek, NHL's official feed, and much more.
 
As always it includes biographical information, the basics, useful metrics (like zone starts, penalties drawn and percentages), advanced Corsi-based statistics, and established stats like GVT and Point Shares - all broken down by situation.

This year the work has been divided into separate sheets for each manpower situation.

Check back often as additional information is always added as they become available.

Update: August 20, 2014: Added Delta in all manpower situations.

NHL Goalies 2013-14

posted Apr 15, 2014, 2:25 PM by Robert Vollman

This is your annual super-stats spreadsheet for goalies. It features 90 pieces of data for all 97 goalies who saw even a single minute of action in 2013-14.

As usual, it includes biographical information and basic statistics, broken down by manpower situation and also by whether the goalie was starting or coming in relief. It includes shoot-out data, penalty shot data, and even contract-related data like cap hit.

Add a summary of the goalie's injuries, how much goal support they received, and even their expected save percentage based on the average shooting percentages of their opponents.

It also includes advanced statitics like Tom Awad's GVT, Justin Kubalko's Point Shares and Robert Vollman's Quality Starts. Check back occasionally for any updates

NHL Player Data 1967-2014

posted Jan 24, 2014, 12:48 PM by Robert Vollman   [ updated Apr 15, 2014, 10:04 PM ]

A spreadsheet of all the basic data recorded for every NHL skaters from the 1967 expansion, until the end of the 2013-14 season.
 
It also includes:
- Age, team, shots on goal, and goals broken down by manpower situation
- Catch-all statistics GVT and Point Shares
- Data normalized for era, on a separate tab
- Time-on-ice data, from when it was first recorded in 1998
 
Data is sourced by Hockey Reference, except GVT data which was sourced from Hockey Prospectus.

KHL Goalies 2008-13

posted Dec 11, 2013, 11:06 AM by Robert Vollman

KHL goaltending statistics directly from the KHL's official website. Includes all goalies from 2008-09 until December 11, 2013 (midway through 2013-14 season). There is a second tab with the combined totals for each goalie.

NHL 2012-13 Player Data

posted May 3, 2013, 8:21 PM by Robert Vollman   [ updated Aug 16, 2013, 1:35 PM ]

250+ stats on all 839 players who were in even a single game in the 2012-13 season.
An annual tradition for almost a decade, this spreadsheet contains a collection of statistics, both basic and advanced, from a wide variety of analysts and web sites including Hockey Reference, Gabriel Desjardins' Behind the Net, Tom Awad, Cap Geek, NHL's official feed, and much more.
As always it includes biographical information, the basics, useful metrics (like zone starts, penalties drawn and percentages), advanced Corsi-based statistics, and established stats like GVT and Point Shares - all broken down by situation.
Check back often as additional information is always added as they become available.
 
Latest update
(Aug 11, 2013): Updated with new statistic (Net Penalties), and corrections to GVT and offensive zone start percentage.
(Aug 15, 2013): Added TOI QoC (Quality of Competition based on average ice-time of one's opponents) and SPD (shooting percentage differential, a re-presenting of PDO).
 

NHL Goalies 2012-13

posted May 2, 2013, 12:14 PM by Robert Vollman

This is your annual super-stats spreadsheet for goalies. It features 71 pieces of data for all 82 goalies who saw even a single minute of action in 2012-13.

As usual, it includes biographical information and basic statistics, broken down by manpower situation and also by whether the goalie was starting or coming in relief. It includes shoot-out data, penalty shot data, and even contract-related data like cap hit.

It also includes advanced statitics like Tom Awad's GVT, Justin Kubalko's Point Shares and Robert Vollman's Quality Starts. Check back occasionally for any updates.

NHL Translations

posted Apr 11, 2013, 10:47 AM by Robert Vollman

When Hockey Prospectus first launched in 2009 (as Puck Prospectus) the very first article was about translating scoring totals from the Russian league to the NHL, and was quickly followed up with a piece that looked at the Swedish Elite League (elitserien). Each piece used a system pioneered by Gabriel Desjardins in 2004, borrowed from baseball’s Bill James, to calculate the average change in scoring totals for all the players who came to the NHL after playing in other leagues.
 
This type of work depends on having a set of data that includes the raw data for everyone who played in another league, like the European, US College or Canadian junior leagues, the year before playing in the NHL.  Using the attached spreadsheet allows everyone to conduct their own analysis with NHL translations.

NHL Coaching Data

posted Feb 1, 2013, 2:59 PM by Robert Vollman

A good coach will make a bad team competitive, and a good team great.  While it is difficult to rate coaches, a good start is to measure how well their team did relative to how well they did the previous season, once regressed to the norm by 35%.  With sufficient data we can start to see which of history's coaches might have been the most effective.
 
It probably comes as no surprise to see Scotty Bowman far, far atop the list, with Ken Hitchcock right behind as the league's most accomplished active coach.  It's also interesting to see how much better non-NHLers did as coaches relative to those who had played in the NHL, or how among those who played in the NHL it doesn't seem to make a difference if they made the Hall of Fame, but does seem to matter what position they played (defensemen make better coaches).
 
Download the attached data and make your own calculations, perhaps restricting the study only to the post-expansion era, or changing the degree of regression (possibly by era). 
 

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